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Value Bet

A bet where your own estimate of an outcome's probability is higher than the chance implied by the odds.
Value is the gap between the true chance and the priced chance, and over the long run only value bets win. It is hard to find consistently because the bookmaker's margin works against you. See our guide to how betting odds work.

Related terms

  • closing-line-value
  • expected-value
  • implied-probability
  • kelly-criterion
  • line-shopping
  • true-odds
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